Barisan Nasional will win. The question is, of course, by how much. A decreased margin will see our PM possibly going the way of our dear Abdullah Badawi. I'm not sure if we will be so keen on his replacement. A bigger win will see him consolidate his hold and give him a strong(er) mandate. Whether he will backtrack on his reforms (however few, there were reforms as PR grudgingly admits) is a question mark, though if the formula works he will keep at it if only to attract the next generation of voters five years down the road.
As for Pakatan Rakyat? Despite the strong wave of support, their time has not yet come. Anwar senses that, and his hints at taking a break from politics point to a weary man. Lim Kit Siang's Johor bid also comes of as last-stand offish.
The fact is that even if PR somehow grabs Putrajaya, it would be an incredibly tenuous hold. Forget about constitutional changes - BN will make one heck of an opposition and PR's infighting would likely grow worse, stymieing any sweeping reforms or changes.
Change. Ah, a certain man in the States ran on that platform. Worked well, too. A lot of people would disagree he actually delivered on that promise, but that doesn't matter. Everybody loves change - change is good in Malaysia, surely it can't get worse. Right?
My experience with politics has been bitter-sweet. Working with a State Representative (whom I admire and respect greatly) was an eye-opening experience and made me realise that it's not just the party you vote for, it's the person. I hope we voters would take some time to look at who we are voting for. And I also learned that politics isn't black and white, establishment and opposition. It's something more like where the hero vanquishes the villain and then tries their best (usually unsuccessfully) not to become one.
Coming back then to BN. People are often baffled at my "neutral" stance (actually I'm not neutral, but still) but that's because I've been thinking and I've been hesitant. A few random thoughts, for what it's worth:-
Arab Spring - change at any cost. Yes, it wasn't done through votes but through an uprising. They lived under dictatorships and their "votes" wouldn't count for much. There was little recourse. Yet the change that came was hardly, for the most part, positive. I'm not for one minute buying BN's "choose stability against chaos" message. But a fractured opposition versus a strongman? Stone me if you want, but I'd prefer the latter.
Chinese "chauvinism" - MCA is pretty much a dead duck. Chinese have fled them. Now DAP is unfairly taking flak for hosting some racial extremists (hello UMNO), but it can't be denied that some of these Chinese has been peddling a less than harmonious message. It was interesting and disturbing listening to a group of Chinese-ed teenagers share their views on BN. "They hate Chinese." I keep hearing. Again, UMNO affliated loudmouths probably have themselves to blame. But it's disturbing to see sentiments like this being spread largely unchecked in the opposition camp. DAP itself would probably reject racial extremism like this (as would UMNO, I hope against hope) but as of now they are not doing much taming these people. If this continues, and with MCA largely gone, the Chinese are dangerously segregating themselves from the majority.
Churches and politics - lots of political sermons recently! It's that time of the year I guess. Most of them unashamedly partisan. Prayers for general "truth and justice" to prevail are still the majority thankfully, yet I'm still hearing some specifically for the victory of the opposition. You know, if we prayed a little harder than we did for Romney to win, maybe it would actually work. There's nothing wrong with politics in the pulpit - it is the moral duty of any Christian to support what is right (even if "right" is unfortunately, a subjective matter) and proclaim it. Yet just like we can get our Bible teaching wrong, our political pronouncements can be off base. My own personal opinion? Let other organizations host political discussions in their churches. A little separation is a good thing, especially if the side you don't support wins and wants revenge for your opposition to them.
The Future - It's going to be a very crucial few years or so for BN after this. Depending on how they play their cards, they will be looking at PAP-style hegemony or becoming the opposition. Najib knows that the next generation won't agree to a social contract they never signed. It's adapt or die. Fighting two fronts - the Opposition and the conservatives in his own party is not easy. It creates a rather diluted and uneven minded man. The constant stream of scandals surrounding him don't help. Many people would rather have someone else (I count myself one of them).
But we don't always get what we want. The majority decides. We make do with what we got. And at least take solace with Churchill, who reminded us that democracy is the worst form of government except for all others.
